⚽ Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion
· 11. April 2026 14:00
✅ Lineup bekreftet
Forventet total
10.7
Mode 10 · Median None
Burnley μ
5.46
basis 4.682 · adj ×1.2
Brighton & Hove Albion μ
5.20
basis 4.619 · adj ×1.025
Historisk n
20 / 20
kamper (hjemme/borte)
SANNSYNLIGHETSFORDELING — TOTALE CORNERS
OVER / UNDER
Laster odds...
| Linje | P(over) | Fair | Pinnacle | EV over | P(under) | Fair | Pinnacle | EV under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — | 17.8% | 5.63 | — | — |
| 8.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — | 27.4% | 3.65 | — | — |
| 9.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — | 38.7% | 2.59 | — | — |
| 10.5 | 49.5% | 2.02 | — | — | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| 11.5 | 38.1% | 2.62 | — | — | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| 12.5 | 28.0% | 3.58 | — | — | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
Dixon-Coles model · NegBin(α=7) · μ = liga_avg × attack_rate(lag) × defense_rate(motstander) · lineup±20%
PREDIKSJON + ODDS LOGG (1 opptak — prediksjon og odds hentet på samme tidspunkt)
| Tidspunkt | Total μ | H μ | B μ | Mode | Lineup | Beste EV (snapshot) | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 18:46 ← siste | 10.7 | 5.46 | 5.20 | 10 | ✅ | — (ingen odds) | — |
Odds ble hentet fra Pinnacle på nøyaktig samme tidspunkt som prediksjonen. Backtest bruker siste rad.
HISTORISK CORNERPROFIL
| Lag | Scorer/kamp | Sluppet/kamp | Attack rate | Defense rate | Siste scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 4.4 | 5.35 | 0.909 | 1.024 | 6, 3, 9, 10, 3, 6, 3, 4, 2, 1, 1, 2, 5, 2, 5, 4, 3, 5, 6, 8 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4.3 | 5.5 | 0.897 | 1.042 | 2, 5, 10, 2, 3, 2, 5, 4, 2, 11, 6, 5, 3, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2 |
μ hjemme = 5.46
(inkl. lineup-adj ×1.2)
μ borte = 5.2
(inkl. lineup-adj ×1.025)
STARTOPPSTILLINGER
✅ Bekreftet
Burnley
Martin Dúbravka
N/A
Quilindschy Hartman
N/A
Maxime Estève
N/A
Lesley Ugochukwu
N/A
Marcus Edwards
N/A
Jaidon Anthony
N/A
Bashir Humphreys
N/A
Florentino
N/A
Hjalmar Ekdal
N/A
Zian Flemming
N/A
James Ward-Prowse
N/A
Brighton & Hove Albion
Bart Verbruggen
N/A
Jan Paul van Hecke
N/A
Yankuba Minteh
N/A
Jack Hinshelwood
N/A
Danny Welbeck
N/A
Olivier Boscagli
N/A
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
N/A
Diego Gómez
N/A
Yasin Ayari
N/A
Mats Wieffer
N/A
Pascal Groß
N/A