⚽ Chelsea vs Manchester City
· 12. April 2026 15:30
⏳ Lineup ikke bekreftet
Forventet total
9.4
Mode 9 · Median 9
Chelsea μ
5.01
basis 5.745 · adj ×1
Manchester City μ
4.41
basis 5.526 · adj ×1
Historisk n
20 / 20
kamper (hjemme/borte)
SANNSYNLIGHETSFORDELING — TOTALE CORNERS
OVER / UNDER
● Pinnacle · EV = modell × odds − 1
| Linje | P(over) | Fair | Pinnacle | EV over | P(under) | Fair | Pinnacle | EV under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — | 30.2% | 3.31 | — | — |
| 8.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — | 41.9% | 2.39 | — | — |
| 9.5 | 46.2% | 2.16 | 1.74 | -19.5% | 53.8% | 1.86 | 2.09 | +12.3% |
| 10.5 | 35.2% | 2.84 | 2.15 | -24.4% | 64.8% | 1.54 | 1.69 | +9.6% |
| 11.5 | 25.6% | 3.91 | — | — | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| 12.5 | 17.8% | 5.62 | — | — | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
Dixon-Coles model · NegBin(α=7) · μ = liga_avg × attack_rate(lag) × defense_rate(motstander) · lineup±20%
PREDIKSJONSLOGG (3 genereringer)
| Tidspunkt | Total μ | Hjemme μ | Borte μ | Mode | Lineup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 19:45 | 9.4 | 5.01 | 4.41 | 9 | ⏳ Projected |
| 2026-04-11 19:02 | 9.1 | 4.82 | 4.33 | 8 | ⏳ Projected |
| 2026-04-11 19:02 | 9.1 | 4.82 | 4.33 | 8 | ⏳ Projected |
HISTORISK CORNERPROFIL
| Lag | Scorer/kamp | Sluppet/kamp | Attack rate | Defense rate | Siste scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 6.1 | 4.15 | 1.115 | 0.878 | 9, 3, 2, 0, 4, 4, 6, 12, 2, 11, 3, 5, 9, 4, 4, 9, 10, 8, 8, 9 |
| Manchester City | 5.75 | 3.5 | 1.073 | 0.800 | 7, 9, 8, 2, 6, 2, 6, 5, 5, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 3, 6, 15 |
μ hjemme = 5.01
μ borte = 4.41
FORVENTET STARTOPPSTILLING
⏳ Basert på siste kamp
Chelsea
Josh Acheampong
0.42
Malo Gusto
0.80
Moisés Caicedo
0.78
Trevoh Chalobah
0.39
João Pedro
1.77
Andrey Santos
0.72
Cole Palmer
1.99
Enzo Fernández
1.94
Robert Sánchez
0.14
Marc Cucurella
1.02
Estêvão
2.44
Manchester City
Rayan Aït-Nouri
0.86
Matheus Nunes
0.61
Gianluigi Donnarumma
0.04
Nico O'Reilly
1.00
Rodri
1.32
Bernardo Silva
1.07
Antoine Semenyo
1.73
Phil Foden
2.31
Rúben Dias
0.44
Erling Haaland
2.35
Marc Guéhi
0.77