⚽ Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth
· 11. April 2026 11:30
✅ Lineup bekreftet
Forventet total
10.5
Mode 10 · Median 10
Arsenal μ
6.18
basis 5.432 · adj ×0.892
AFC Bournemouth μ
4.36
basis 5.213 · adj ×1.121
Historisk n
20 / 20
kamper (hjemme/borte)
SANNSYNLIGHETSFORDELING — TOTALE CORNERS
OVER / UNDER
Laster odds...
| Linje | P(over) | Fair | Pinnacle | EV over | P(under) | Fair | Pinnacle | EV under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — | 18.7% | 5.35 | — | — |
| 8.5 | 71.4% | 1.4 | — | — | 28.6% | 3.5 | — | — |
| 9.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — | 40.0% | 2.5 | — | — |
| 10.5 | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| 11.5 | 36.9% | 2.71 | — | — | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| 12.5 | 26.9% | 3.71 | — | — | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
Dixon-Coles model · NegBin(α=7) · μ = liga_avg × attack_rate(lag) × defense_rate(motstander) · lineup±20%
PREDIKSJON + ODDS LOGG (4 opptak — prediksjon og odds hentet på samme tidspunkt)
| Tidspunkt | Total μ | H μ | B μ | Mode | Lineup | Beste EV (snapshot) | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 08:34 ← siste | 10.5 | 6.18 | 4.36 | 10 | ✅ | — (ingen odds) | — |
| 2026-04-11 19:40 | 10.5 | 6.19 | 4.36 | 10 | ✅ | — (ingen odds) | — |
| 2026-04-11 18:46 | 10.0 | 5.98 | 4.02 | 9 | ✅ | — (ingen odds) | — |
| 2026-04-11 18:46 | 10.0 | 5.75 | 4.27 | 9 | ✅ | — (ingen odds) | — |
Odds ble hentet fra Pinnacle på nøyaktig samme tidspunkt som prediksjonen. Backtest bruker siste rad.
HISTORISK CORNERPROFIL
| Lag | Scorer/kamp | Sluppet/kamp | Attack rate | Defense rate | Siste scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 5.6 | 3.35 | 1.054 | 0.781 | 3, 4, 3, 8, 3, 7, 3, 5, 3, 9, 9, 12, 5, 4, 3, 5, 5, 3, 8, 10 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 5.25 | 6.1 | 1.012 | 1.115 | 3, 1, 5, 4, 5, 15, 3, 7, 3, 6, 3, 6, 11, 2, 5, 7, 4, 8, 6, 1 |
μ hjemme = 6.18
(inkl. lineup-adj ×0.892)
· formasjon 4-2-3-1
μ borte = 4.36
(inkl. lineup-adj ×1.121)
· formasjon 4-2-3-1
STARTOPPSTILLINGER
✅ Bekreftet
Arsenal
David Raya
0.07
William Saliba
0.31
Ben White
1.14
Gabriel Magalhães
1.00
Gabriel Martinelli
1.96
Viktor Gyökeres
1.40
Noni Madueke
1.72
Kai Havertz
1.46
Martín Zubimendi
0.74
Declan Rice
1.59
Myles Lewis-Skelly
0.62
AFC Bournemouth
Djordje Petrovic
0.01
Adrien Truffert
0.61
Marcos Senesi
0.62
Alex Scott
1.11
Evanilson
1.68
Ryan Christie
1.90
Marcus Tavernier
1.91
Álex Jiménez
1.00
Eli Kroupi
1.00
James Hill
0.50
Rayan
1.76