🇳🇴 Backtest — Eliteserien
Kamper (testsett)
543
fra 2024-03-01
MAE
3.1322
corners per kamp
Bias
-0.0745
over = overpredikert
Snitt hjørnespark
10.6
per kamp
Modell (parametere)
N=20 K=16
tilt=0.8
Kalibrering per linje
Walk-forward, 2024-03-01 →
| Linje | Modell P(over) | Faktisk over-rate | Bias | Under-pred | Nær nøytral | Over-pred |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 7.5 | 75.8% | 77.5% | -1.8% | 28.2% | 40.0% | 31.9% |
| O/U 8.5 | 66.5% | 68.1% | -1.6% | 28.2% | 40.0% | 31.9% |
| O/U 9.5 | 56.6% | 57.5% | -0.8% | 28.2% | 40.0% | 31.9% |
| O/U 10.5 | 46.8% | 47.3% | -0.6% | 28.2% | 40.0% | 31.9% |
| O/U 11.5 | 37.4% | 37.2% | +0.2% | 28.2% | 40.0% | 31.9% |
| O/U 12.5 | 29.1% | 29.6% | -0.6% | 28.2% | 40.0% | 31.9% |
Statistikk per sesong
| Sesong | Kamper | Snitt hjørnespark | Snitt hjemme | Snitt borte | Over 9.5 rate | Over 10.5 rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 240 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 57.9% | 47.5% |
| 2024 | 240 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 55.4% | 47.1% |
| 2025 | 303 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 59.1% | 47.5% |
Mest angripende lag (attack rate)
| Lag | Attack rate | Snitt scored |
|---|---|---|
| Bodø / Glimt | 1.36 | 8.7 |
| Viking | 1.16 | 6.8 |
| Brann | 1.16 | 6.8 |
| Vålerenga | 1.11 | 6.3 |
| Rosenborg | 1.10 | 6.2 |
| Sarpsborg 08 | 1.04 | 5.7 |
| Sandefjord | 1.03 | 5.5 |
| Aalesund | 1.02 | 5.5 |
Beste forsvar (lav defense rate)
| Lag | Defense rate | Snitt conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Bodø / Glimt | 0.75 | 2.9 |
| Tromsø | 0.81 | 3.5 |
| KFUM | 0.85 | 3.9 |
| Brann | 0.91 | 4.4 |
| Lillestrøm | 0.92 | 4.5 |
| Stabæk | 0.94 | 4.7 |
| Viking | 0.95 | 4.8 |
| Start | 1.00 | 5.2 |